Exploring new sources of demand
The financial crisis has affected the real economy, through a very sharp fall in international trade volumes. Italian exports has suffered such decline in global demand and has experienced an impressive contraction in 2009.
SACE estimates the world economy to start recovering, although slowly, in the last quarter of the current year. The recovery will come from emerging markets first and then advanced economies will follow.
The pick-up in international trade is going to have a positive effect on Italian exports. We forecast the dynamic of our foreign sales to move back into positive ground in the 2010-2011 period in all markets and sectors. The value of the export of goods is expected to increase by 5.7%in average.
Exports of investment and intermediate goods will record the best performances, with average growth in sectors of both groups of almost 7%.
Asia will be the best performing area for the Italian exporters (+8.3%, in average in 2010-2011) but important opportunities will be also in Latin America.