Methodological Note: Export Opportunity Index

The index is calculated by weighing four variables:

Total value of Italian exports to the country2018Istat

Average growth rate of Italian exports to the country
note 1

2015-2022ISTAT and Oxford Economics projections

Concentration of the country's imports
note 2

2016United Nations

Italian share of the country's imports
note 3

Latest available for the country
UN Comtrade



  1. The average growth rate of Italian exports considered is:
    1. up to 2022 for the markets where SACE has projections (63 countries, included in the Export Report);
    2. up to 2018 for the remaining countries;
  2. The variable in question is the Partner concentration of trade (import figure) of the United Nations;
  3. The score for Italy's share of the country's global imports is calculated emphasizing the intermediate market shares (between 2% and 4%), which indicate a strong Italian presence and the potential for increasing share.

In a few cases, regarding marginal countries, the score is further adjusted by a qualitative evaluation that reflects political and economic events.