“Falling out of love” with globalisation and discontinuity with the past model will be felt soon. Protectionist measures are increasing considerably and international trade is growing a lot less than in the pre-crisis period.
The two 2016 core risks are confirmed as the main critical issues for 2017: debt (public and private, now 225% of global GDP) and the geopolitical variable. Amongst debt-related components, the main worrying factors are the bank risk (SACE index up 2 points at global level) and the currency transfer risk.
Countries affected most by the increase in bank risk include important economies like Brazil and Mexico in South America, India, Turkey, and Mozambique, Nigeria and Angola in Africa. Geographical areas where the currency transfer risk has increased considerably still include Mozambique and Angola, in addition to Cuba, Egypt and Oman; while Iran and Argentina bucked the trend.
There is no perfect recipe. However, in-depth knowledge of the potential dangers is fundamental to overcome fear and keep on growing. The awareness of companies operating on international markets must be enhanced, now even more than before.
The regional integration areas, especially between the EU and the Andean countries (like Colombia, Peru, Chile), of the Sub-Saharan area and Asia (like South Korea) can become ecosystems to be explored. In 2015, these countries imported over EUR 27 billion of Italian exports.
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