The first victim of the international financial crisis was “zero-risk”. Country risk has returned even in theadvanced markets, starting with Greece. The differences between advanced and emerging markets had narrowed in recent years, and it was growth in those latter markets that fueled the recovery. Today, however, in the wake of lower commodity prices and a slowdown in Asian demand, we are again faced with the “Old Normal”, or better yet a “New Old Normal”, where the advanced countries have begun to grow again and the others limp along behind.
Low raw material prices, the return of debt with the weakening of public accounts, and the resurgence of political violence will be the hallmarks of 2016. These three key factors will impact Italian exports. Rising risk has resulted in a decline in exports of over € 5 billion this year, but € 31 billion can be recovered in the next four years by focusing on accurate information, specific coverage, and a strategic approach to investment.
Risk has remained fairly stable in the advanced markets (SACE index: -1 point), while it has increased significantly in the large emerging countries (+ 4 points) and in a few other areas, specifically the Middle East and North Africa (+ 4 points) and Latin America (+ 2 points).
Many opportunities still exist in places like Algeria, Chile, China, India, Iran, Kenya, Malaysia, Mexico Morocco, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Spain, Turkey and United Arab Emirates. Some of them simply require greater caution due to temporary imbalances.
Thus the ability to select “winners” and “losers” will be increasingly critical for channeling exports toward the recovering industrialized countries and continuing to harvest the fruit of what has been sowed in recent years in the emerging markets through adequate, targeted insurance coverage. The world in 2016 is less level: the SACE Risk Map can be a useful tool for identifying potential threats and seeking new opportunities.
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