The thesis of perennial stagnation or speculative bubbles as the only instruments for fueling economic growth has resurfaced in recent weeks. China is experiencing its third bubble in six years, this time of a financial nature. Apart from the current financial hysteria, we must not forget the structural change the Asian giant is undergoing. Beijing is guiding its economy toward a medium/long-term development model, more focused on consumer spending.
The Chinese bubble is lifting the veil on stability in the real economies of the emerging markets and their demand for goods and services. SACE has analyzed the top 20 emerging markets for Italian exports to determine which areas will actually be vulnerable to exogenous shocks.
China, Saudi Arabia, the Emirates and Poland, which represent 28% of Italian exports to emerging markets, are important customers for the Italian goods that will remain the focus, net of current fluctuations. The potential for additional Italian exports to these four countries might exceed a total of € 11 billion in the next three years, equivalent to 30% of current exports.
Conversely, Argentina, South Africa, Brazil, Russia and Turkey (but also Chile, Egypt and Malaysia to a lesser extent) are more exposed to turbulence. The greater vulnerability of the emerging world can still be managed through adequate risk management solutions.
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